Alan Aronoff
Central - Tucson
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Thanks for checking in, welcome to my blog!  Allow me to post you up with what's happening in the Tucson real estate market  ~ Alan


JULY 2018



I don't believe it is our heat that is causing a pullback of sorts in real estate sales this month.

I think the real reason is everyone is on vacation!  July was the first month of the year

where business was not on fire. One gets the distinct feeling that buyers, would-be sellers

and even realtors are largely missing in action, taking advantage of a last minute vacation

before the new school year starts and everyone is back to business.  

And, whatever it is, buyers should take note - it could be the one moment you have to

experience making a deal without as much fear from getting outbid by another buyer.  You 

know this isn't going to last...inventory levels remain on the lower side and interest rates really

haven't risen since the first quarter.  And, with a new "Pathway to Purchase" program that

recently unveiled itself, (a government-based stimulus program designed to aid buyers with

the ability to borrow their downpayment), it's just a matter of time until it's crazy out there again!


JUNE 2018



Anyone remember that 1973 hit song by Stevie Wonder?  Well, if so, the lyrics should

also include "...buyers, keep on buyin', while sellers keep on sellin'..." at least for Tucson,

AZ, our current summer hotness notwithstanding.  Even with our temps at 106, we are

not hibernating in our air-conditioned offices, transactions are being made and the

market continues to knock on our doors. 


Inventory remains lower, to much lower, depending on neighborhood and price point.

Interestingly enough, low inventory continues almost everywhere in the US, so it is not

just us alone.  But Tucson's cadre of buyers are still quite price conscious, even in the face

of lower inventory.  It is important for sellers to realize they should still be priced well

according to their market and not price themselves into the sky, or the home will sit! 

As we approach monsoon, may you keep on tryin' till you reach your highest ground!



MAY 2018


While we at Long Realty don't cover the property management side of the business,

it is worth at least noting what's going on with Tucson rentals out there.  Investors

are still making Tucson their choice.  Recently, a 140-unit complex, "University Villa"

on Ironwood Hill Dr., just closed for 17.45 million.  And, a new 4-story complex is 

underway at Speedway and Tyndall, which will feature construction of a modern

set of 57 units.  This will ease some of the pressure of the rental market, particularly

the student housing sector of the rental market.  


Even with all of the previous high-rise rental developments in the past few years, 

and the addition of more units on the way, rental prices are still up compared to 

those years prior to all of that.  Tucson is still penciling out very nicely for the 

investors out there!






March and April were both hot market months and we have seen no slowdown as yet.

Interest rates are creeping up, 4.75-5.00% are fast becoming the new norm for the

30 year mortgage rates available out there.  The Federal Reserve raised their federal

funds rate from 1.5 to 1.75% which has precipitated this mortgage rise.  


Septic Tanks need to be certified within 20 days of a deal, this is a big change from

waiting until the last week of the deal.  It will take the unpredictability out of the 

equation and provide information at the onset of the deal rather than the end of 

the deal, a welcome change!


Older AC's that have run on R-22 refrigerant will unfortunately see that refrigerant

being phased out.  It doesn't necessarily mean that the old AC will be rendered 

defunct.  There are options besides getting a new system, including retrofitting the

old system to handle and operate with new refrigerant available today. 






The market has responded in kind as per usual this Spring - buyers are coming out of the

woodwork, shopping, making deals, multiple offers commonplace and inventory is being

absorbed quickly.  Here is a link for some interesting reading about where Americans

were moving to during the 2017 year:


When it comes to inbound moving from other parts of the US, Arizona is ranked number 1!

This intriguing article was produced by North American Van Lines Moving Company, bravo!






It's been called a "game-changer" for Tucson.  A new 300-foot skyscraper is now slated in downtown

where now lies a vacant parking lot on Broadway between Sixth and Scott Avenues.  Although it will

not quite have the status of being the tallest building in Tucson, it will come pretty close (the tallest

currently is 1 S. Church at 320 feet, 23 floors high).  When completed, the new tower will rise 20

stories and should set the tone for Tucson's future downtown skyline.  It's an amazing step for

Tucson's economics - an out of state developer has this much confidence in demand to lay out

some 110 million to create this Rio-Nuevo approved project.  Another powerful component to an

already revitalized downtown!


Meanwhile back on the ground floor, the Tucson real estate market continues good-to-excellent with

buyers and sellers right back at it post holiday season.  Deals are being made, sometimes complete

with multiple offers on the very well priced properties.  The decided sense is that 2018 will mirror

the bountiful real estate market of 2017.  Although mortgage rates have inched up to ~ 4.375%,

the market has not slowed.  





Remember that "Magic 8 Ball" response?  I think it is a match for what is coming for us in 2018. 

Although I'd be remiss to say "It is certain", I'm quite comfortable with "Signs point to yes". 

Recent consumer information puts Arizona as the 5th highest state population growth for 2017,

Pima County's jobless rate is down again, optimism among small US companies advanced to its

highest level since 1983 and new-home prices reached record levels in 2017 for Tucson, higher

than the market's peak in 2006, fueling home-builder confidence to open several new communities

next year!


Looking back at 2017....  in the words of Garrett Morris of SNL, 2017 has been a berry berry good

year for us!  Central Tucson lead the way in garnering an appreciation increase of more than 10%

in sold prices for the year, versus 2016.  The Foothills, while on a slower pace, still enjoyed better

than a 4% increase in sold prices versus last year.  These figures represent extensive areas,

neighborhoods do vary widely.  I am happy to let you know what YOUR neighborhood experienced

for the year, feel free to contact me anytime at (520) 631-7222.  Have a wonderful rest of your

2017 and all the best for 2018!





Our great neighbor to the northwest has taken first place in WalletHub's article "Best Small Cities

to Live in Arizona" - Oro Valley it is!  Cited is the town's low crime rate, educated population and

a nearly non-existent poverty level.  It looks as though the whole metro of Tucson is going to close

2017 with nice, positive real estate numbers, I'll keep you posted as we get closer.  Activity has

predictably shifted down a bit for the holidays but we're anticipating a healthy January to ramp-up

our market for the new year.  All the best to you and yours this holiday season!





Nice to see the recent jump in market and sales activity after a relatively quieter August and

September.  Thanks to cooler temps and continued lower interested rates (even though they

have ticked up ~ 1/4%), our market is once again showing its strength.  And, speaking of

revitalization, Congress Street just received a  shout-out from the American Planning Association

which honored it as being one of the country's greatest 5 streets.  They cite the street's

character, quality of restoration and planning, street car, pedestrian access, etc., here is the link:     




As our monsoon says goodbye for the season, the blissfully cooler days and evenings that we've

been waiting for have arrived and are most welcome!  Interestingly, like the weather, the Tucson

real estate market has calmed down a bit as well.  After 7 blistering pace months, the market is

taking a little breather.  It may be back to school focus, last minute vacation or just a natural

blip in this year's market path.  Whatever it is, think of it as a pause that refreshes - inventory

levels get their chance to catch up and buyers are gifted with less chance of running into multiple

offers.  At the same time, you can almost feel the reloading going don't get too comfortable,

the white hot pace is going to be back at anytime!


Kudos to Tucson, here's a link to an article from Redfin that puts our city as the number one

college town to invest in!  I have assisted buyers investing in university homes for their kids

throughout the decades.  This article has the figures in black and white and why it's a smart

way to go!


JULY 2017


If there is anything that might have put any damper on our hot market, (that pun intended)

would it, could it have been our heavy monsoon season thus far?  Not really - buyers and sellers

haven't missed a step, the strength of our market continues forward.  The past month of July

completely shattered all previous rainfall records for any July, with a recordation of 6.8 inches of

rain!  Great to get all of that water with the humbling heat we all experienced in June.  Although

this historic monsoon season is upon us, our fast-paced business is as usual.  Please note, needing

roof estimates, roof repairs and exterior painting can and will be challenging, definitely provide for

some extra time.  And enjoy the record-setting monsoon season!


JUNE 2017


Tucson's weather this June has brought record temps, a span of 115+ degree days and a summer

we haven't seen the likes of in quite a spell.  We hit 116 on June 20th, tied for the 2nd hottest

temp ever recorded in Tucson history.  Tucson's all-time high was recorded on June 26, 1990

when the thermometer topped out at 117.


Just as I was expecting this month's extreme heat to throw a pause into our market...that notion

ended up melting in the heat.  This June has us working hard, encountering real estate as hot

ever, complete with multiple offers, buyers not hesitating to act and deals being made as fast

as at any clip in this blisteringly strong market we've experienced thus far this year.  Believe it,

don't be fooled by the heavy heat and bring your A-game to the negotiating table!



MAY 2017



Yes, the sun is shining.  Yes, Tucson has already reached triple digits, yes, U of A

and Tucson schools are out and snowbirds have left the building.  What we are not

seeing is the typical slowdown of our real estate business.  The market, thus far

anyway, has decided that business is as usual.  Which means a market as hot as the

weather and ready to strike.  We are still seeing multiple offers and well-priced

property snatched up long before you expected.  Continue seeing busy inspectors,

appraisers and handymen and allow appropriate time periods for your transactions.


APRIL 2017



Our super schools have scored!  US News and World Report has come up with the

TOP 15 High Schools in the USA.  Basis Tucson North was number 2 and Basis Oro

Valley marched in at number 3 while TUSD's University High School rounded out

the list at number 15.  Just another great reason to call Tucson home!


MARCH 2017


Our hot market continues - not to be interrupted by the Fed Funds interest rate increase - 

lenders anticipated the rise and mortgages have actually ticked down to ~ 4.25% towards

month's end.  Buyers are out there in great numbers and not hesitating to make moves

on the well priced properties out there.


New housing is way up and resale homes are flying off the shelves, er, streets.  Tucson is

said to be one of the hottest markets in the country in terms of most value increase (5%)

since the first of the new year!






It's no joke!  The Dow Industrial Average broke the 20,000 mark and is still climbing.  Economic

figures continue to impress!  One thing you can bank on coming along for the ride - rising

interest rates.  They do tend to accompany growing, healthy economies and our current

economic environment appears to be ready to follow suit at any moment.  Hang on to those

loan-locks and keep your eye on the fluctuations.  

Turning locally, Tucson was recently projected as being the 9th hottest housing market in the US

for 2017 by, not too shabby!






The new State of Arizona Real Estate Contract is coming!  This is the first significant change in the

contract we've used for residential real estate to come along in several years.  While many

clauses in the new contract merely spell out in greater length the same items we've always

had, there is a huge change in it with regards to the presumption of seller "warranted" items.

In the soon-to-be-old-contract, unless the deal was "AS-IS", it was assumed that the seller

would warrant the operation of critical home systems, such as heating, cooling, electrical and

plumbing systems.  The new contract takes this presumption away and states the home's systems

"are what they are" leaving buyers to perform diligent inspections to gain as much material

information as possible on any given property.  So, what to remember?  Sellers, have a good

idea as to what is working or not working and formally disclose.  Buyers, realize your inspection

period has never been more important, use this time to diligently inspect any given property.  

Feel free to contact me for further explanations, this new contract is set to go into effect in February.






No surprise, our year is ending on a decidedly great note.  Tucson's unemployment rate has

plunged to just over 4%, lower than the national figure of 4.6%.  According to economist

George Hammond of UA, job growth in Tucson should exceed 1.7% in 2017 and Tucson is 

expected to add 7000 jobs during the new year as well.  S & P has placed Pima County as

the 3rd fastest job creator in the country!  


Meanwhile, Tucson's retail sector is up, the new multi-story downtown hotel is slated to open,

the transformation of the Ronstadt Center is underway, along with its 400 new housing units,

and, coupling that with the downtown senior housing project, a total of 1000 added housing

units will be put into motion for 2017 in downtown alone.


And, as we say 'so long' to 2016, homeowners will also be happy to know that we gained some

8% in value appreciation this year for Central Tucson houses.  House sales (units sold) were also

up nicely, 20% higher for the year!  For the Catalina Foothills, houses (units sold) were up 8%

for the year and appreciation coming in about half of Central's, values being higher by about

4% than the previous year.  Such a nice, solid year....all indicators are pointing for more to come!

Enjoy the rest of what's left of 2016 and here's to a very happy, healthy and prosperous New Year!





Following the latest deluge of good consumer news -- consumer confidence reported being at

its highest level in some 9 years, the Dow traveling north of 19000 for the first time in history,

unemployment benefits filings at a 4-decade low and Raytheon promising a major local

expansion complete with upwards of 2000 added jobs -- real estate sales in Tucson are 

responding in kind!  Activity is higher than normal for the season, carrying right on through

Thanksgiving break.  We are looking to capture about 10% in appreciated home value

this year!  Inventory levels continue low, serious buyers are out there seriously shopping and

deals are being made.  Enjoy the season!




Things are still ramped up in our local real estate market - I'm too busy to write this blog!  :-p

Will be back to you next month, enjoy the cooler weather finally! 





Thank you to the community for choosing Long Realty Co. as their number one for residential

real estate!  The AZ Star Reader's Choice Awards were just passed out and Long won for

Residential Real Estate Brokerage, Long Mortgage, Long Insurance, and Commercial Brokerage -

all receiving #1 honors!  Here is a link to know more about this great company that I have been

with for over 20 years:


It includes a cool and interesting 4-min YouTube video about Long Realty, fun to watch,

just click the See Our Story orange button once you are on.  Let me know if I may ever be

of any assistance and I'll get Tucson's number one company working for you!  ~ Alan





The market continues as hot as our summer with no slow-down in sight, it looks like our great

real estate year in Tucson is going coast to coast, Jan to Dec.  At the same time, it is great to

notice some current NY Times and USA Today articles exalting Tucson's culinary scene...


Not entirely surprising to Tucsonans, for years we've dined happily at so many fresh and fun,

diverse and delicious, upscale and casual, overall wonderful restaurants here in the Old Pueblo

and could create catalogs about them.  Now Tucson has garnered the attention of the national

stage and here are some of those interesting articles making the rounds recently: 



And job growth finds our little town number 3 in the US on this Bloomberg list:


JUNE 2016



A big salute to U of A's baseball team, whom were not supposed to be anywhere near a College

World Series, yet managed to come within one win of the championship before ultimately losing

to Coastal Carolina.


Meanwhile, you buyers out there, if you are looking for that one extra base to help you reach

home, here are some new and interesting programs that could be game-changers for you!

Down Payment Assistance (DPA), Pima Bond Money and Arizona Pathway to Purchase are the

new opportunities, drafted to help you steal home.  Down payment loans, all but shut-out the

past several years, are now available to individuals up to $20,000, or, up to 10% of your

purchase price, if you wish to take a swing at it. These loans would have to be paid back unless

they're owner-occupied for the entire 5 years.  But, perhaps this is the green-light pitch you've 

been sitting on, swing for the fences and bring down the house!  Please contact me for more 

info, I'm happy to coach you through it!



MAY 2016


Just in case you have been in hiding under a rock, the Caterpillar company is making its way 

into the Old Pueblo.  Some 600 executive jobs will be added into our local economy, once again

showing the attraction of our metro area.  Meanwhile, May has been a great month for sales in

our housing market.  We have not felt the usual slow-down that we normally experience at this

time.  Buyers are buying, mortgage rates continue exceptionally low and the Spring's quick pace

has definitely not subsided.  Enjoy the heat! :)



APRIL 2016



Unfortunately, phishers and spoofers are at it again.  Sadly, they never seem to quit devising

ways to fool the public and have reached out to our industry in some wickedly creative ways. 

If they can find their way into your email box and crack your personal information, they are

are using true real estate transactions to drain bank accounts of unsuspecting buyers and

sellers.  BE AWARE!


One devious plan involves them sending an email to you that looks like it's coming from

a real escrow officer or real estate agent.  It asks for you to provide them your bank routing

information needed to close.  They can steal hundreds of thousands of dollars this way and

once the deed is done, their whereabouts will most likely be untraceable. 


Another hack attack goes like this: Spoofers enlist new for-sale listings, complete with the

true agent's listing description and photographs and subsequently repost them on sites such

as Craigslist and Facebook, as a rental property.  "We decided not to sell, ignore the realtor's

sign, we just want to rent the property now" are some of the things they will tell you when

you call them.  They'll ask you to drive by, poke around, and if you are interested to please

send them a check to reserve the property.


Please be on your toes.  Certainly, if you are in the midst of a real estate deal, know that

an escrow officer or realtor will never ask you for sensitive personal information via email.

If you are ever in doubt, please follow your urge to pick up the phone and verify!


MARCH 2016


March Madness is with us once again, lots of action within our local real estate market!

Unit sales are up, closed price points have also ticked up March 2016 V. March 2015, and

and the housing atmosphere is sustaining positively in the right direction so far this year.


The Blenman-Elm/Catalina Vista Neighborhoods will soon be experiencing some

new development across from the Arizona Inn, specifically in the Potter Place pocket.

The plan is for a dozen or so luxury homes to be built, priced in the $750,000 to

1.1 million range.


On a larger scale, Mattamy Homes has recently purchased some 173 acres on the

Eastside from the City of Tucson.  This development will be just west of Civano and

will incorporate and preserve the open acreage of the popular "Fantasy Island"

mountain bike trail park within the site.




Back in December, the feds decided to raise the central bank's benchmark interest rate

for the first time in 10 years.  Many took a collective breath in and wondered what this

might do to mortgage interest rates, and how it might affect our market. Not so much. 


In fact, the truth is that mortgage interest rates have actually gone down in the 2 1/2

months since the hike.  January's 4% for a fixed 30-year mortgage has morphed into

3.75% for February!


In addition to this, we are hearing more and more of government down payment

assistance programs.  See your favorite loan officer to see if you might be able to

qualify for these interesting options!



As we make our way into the New Year, many have been asking as to what we should

expect for 2016.  What will affect real estate?  Where will interest rates be? How about

the new TRID rules?  What about oil prices?  Who will win the election? Etc, etc, etc. It's

easy to spout out predictions but studies have continually found that "expert" forecasting 

can hardly beat monkeys throwing darts.  And this is the year of the monkey!


Tucson has been experiencing a nice, balanced market for a few years now, equating

to slight rises in appreciation depending on the exact neighborhood in question. In

general, we are feeling that we won't be surprised if 2016 produces a rise in value in the

3-6% range. We are also guessing that interest rates will not rise much, if at all, from

where they are now, around 4% for a 30 year mortgage.  The market here continues

along its recovery with lots of listings and lots of buyers-balanced!  And that is good. 

Boom markets are not easy to operate in and nobody likes bust markets.  So enjoy

your balanced market and may you experience a fantastic year! 



Congratulations, Tucson, real estate sales in town kept a brisk pace all year long,

property value appreciation is up about 5% this year.  More homes were sold this

year than last, unit sales of houses were up about 13% over a year ago.  Listing levels

are basically close to the same, though we are ending the year with slightly less listings

for sale than at the end of 2014.  


Great news on the appreciation - 2014 was basically an even year, 2013 and 2012 were 

rising years and with 2015 being on the positive side of the fence, we are cumulatively 

up about 25% from the low point of our market in 2011.  Tucson real estate is continuing

to find its path through the great recovery.


All the best to you this holiday season and have a wonderful 2016!


As per usual, October in Tucson is rocking!  The market has awaken from its
summer slumber and things are taking off once again.  It feels just like the
first quarter of this year where February and March were by far our strongest
months.  Good to see the comeback and with all of the added action, we
may well end up with positive appreciation for the year of 2015 - we shall see! 


Just as we've all been getting used to the way things have been going with 
all of the financial requirements to fund a loan, a new set of rules is 
coming along very soon.  This is called "TRID" which stands for Tila Respa 
Integrated Disclosure (Tila is Truth and Lending Act) and rolls out on
October 3rd.  The new Arizona Real Estate Contract coincides with this
date, although not a lot has changed on it.

What is important to know is that the new lending forms, disclosures, rules
and timelines are likely going to affect the timing needed to close deals 
involving financing, and, they are designed to be more protective to consumers.